Ukraine 2021-2024. What will happen to the economy?

Macroeconomic forecast. The Ukrainian economy will develop close to a positive scenario in 2021-2022, and in 2023 there will be a period of heightened risks of macroeconomic stability.

Overall forecast

By the end of 2021, the nominal GDP of Ukraine will exceed $ 183 billion, while real GDP growth is expected at 4.3%. The main drivers of economic growth are:

  • Favorable pricing environment in the world commodity market, which led to an increase in the volume of exports of agricultural products and metallurgy in monetary terms. It also accelerated inflation - positively for nominal GDP.
  • Recovery of consumer demand in a stable situation on the credit and money market within the country.
  • Effective actions of the NBU and the Ministry of Finance to refinance debts in 2021–2022.

In subsequent years, according to the baseline scenario, the Ukrainian economy will grow to $ 205 billion in 2022, then to $ 213 billion in 2023 and to $ 232 billion in 2024. The dynamics of real GDP is expected to be volatile: growth by 3.6% in 2022, by 1.6% in 2023 and by 2.6% in 2024. The slowdown in 2023 is due to a number of factors: from the beginning of the political cycle in the country to imbalances in the global market.

In 2023, global economic turbulence is expected, which will slow down the growth and economy of Ukraine. However, this will not lead to serious structural problems for further development.

In 2021-2022, the development of the Ukrainian economy can be assessed close to a positive scenario. Favorable global conditions will ensure sustainable growth for the Ukrainian economy in 2022, supported by an inflow of direct investment, non-resident demand for domestic bonds and an adequate cost of refinancing in foreign markets.

Source: Biz.nv